I’ve followed news trends for YEARS, and I still get the sense that most people have no idea how it is that when everything looks fine, it just explodes into war or conflict.
The economist Nassem Taleb calls this “black swan theory.” Most swans are white- nobody expects to see a black one, and when they do, they are unexpected. It’s the thing nobody saw coming.
But why did nobody see it?
Because either (a) nobody was looking or (b) nobody knew how to look.
It’s like getting sick with a cold. When you get sick, it’s because a germ got into your body and made you sick.
You didn’t see the germ go it. But it still got in.
Just because you don’t see something doesn’t mean it’s not there. That is the reason why I am constantly reading and researching, because life doesn’t happen by accident.
Even with the expression that an event is like “mushrooms that pop up on logs overnight,” those mushrooms STILL HAD AN ORIGIN- spores that floated to the log, settled, and under the right conditions sprouted.
It’s the same with news. Events in life don’t happen out of nothing. Everything has a cause, even if you don’t see it.
Sure, there are “black swans” that really do exist in news and come as a surprise. But they are just a surprise because either nobody was looking for it or nobody knew where to look, but it was always there.